A.B. Kuzmin, V.Ju. Shishkin
Features of methods of forecasting of parameters of radio engineering object by results of control when dynamics of transitions of parameters from one condition in another are modelled by casual processes are considered. As system effectiveness of application of radio engineering object will depend on quality of the solution of a problem of forecasting, the aspiration to create optimum algorithm base for which is the theory of statistical decisions is natural.
On the basis of the considered features a number of problems of synthesis of system of optimum forecasting of conditions of parameters of radio engineering objects to which number first of all it is necessary to carry problems of identification of model of casual process of transition of a vector of parameters from a condition in a condition and models of measuring instruments of controllable parameters is formulated. Ways of their decision are offered.
The technique of calculation of an optimum assessment of a forecast according to the fixed set of control values of parameters is developed.
The corresponding quasioptimum algorithms of statistical forecasting which allow to determine by results of the carried-out control values of a vector of parameters during future moments of time, and also such important applications from the point of view of system of radio engineering object by a characteristic condition, as probability and average time of the first achievement of borders of area of working capacity are developed.
The solution of the formulated problems will allow to define need of carrying out preventive and recovery operations, their volume, and also time of the next control that is a basis for introduction of system of its application on a condition depending on the current technical state of radio engineering object.