V. V. Mikhailov – Dr.Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Head of Hydrometeorological Faculty, Air Force Academy named after professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Y.A. Gagarin (Voronezh). E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
M. E. Semenov – Dr.Sc. (Phys.-Math.), Professor, Professor of 11 dept. Theoretical Hydrometeorology Air Force Academy named after professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Y.A. Gagarin (Voronezh). E-mail: email@example.com
S. L. Kirnosov – Ph.D. (Eng.), Doctoral Candidate of 11 dept. Theoretical Hydrometeorology Air Force Academy named after professor N.E. Zhukovsky and Y.A. Gagarin (Voronezh). E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
The efficacy and safety of the modern aircraft tasks are essential dependence on the actual and forecast weather conditions, the account which is being implemented by the decision, as a rule, on the qualitative and empirical level. Therefore, it is urgent search for new approaches to decision-making based on a new mathematical ideas, in particular the theory of deterministic chaos. In the framework of such a theory in this article a landing meteorological model, the implementation of which allow the decision-maker, to obtain numerical values of the risk associated with exposure to aircraft adverse weather conditions. The construction of bifurcation dynamic model made on the basis of the known recurrence relation P. Verhulst. The bifurcation diagram of the model demonstrates the transition of stable states of the aviation system in the state of deterministic chaos through a series of bifurcations by M. Feigenbaum scenario. In the model parameters are interpreted in terms of information and physical properties as well as a separate component is selected weather pattern. An analysis of his until the bifurcation of the dynamic model, showed that the probability of a successful landing of the aircraft in the stochastic influence of meteorological factors have complex non-linear dependence on them. The use of prognostic meteorological data as input parameters of the dynamic model allows the organization and conduct missions to carry out a preliminary assessment of the probability of a successful landing of the aircraft and on the basis of the information obtained to plan measures to eliminate cases of emergency. The use of actual meteorological data provides the option to account for the dynamics of deteriorating weather conditions in determining the probability of a successful landing of the aircraft. The resulting meteorological risk is represented as four ranks: standard, the risk is compensated by the crisis, the crisis non-compensable. Depending on these conditions, the pilot decides to land the aircraft. Application of the proposed bifurcation dynamic model, in practice, provides a quantitative assessment of meteorological risk arising during landing of the aircraft, which minimizes the probability of an accident due to the presence of meteorological uncertainty.