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Management of company’s decision process based on the situational dynamics forecasting

Keywords:

A.V. Zimin – Post-graduate Student, South Ural State University (Chelyabinsk). E-mail: gena.na3@googlemail.com O.V. Loginovskiy – Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Head of Department, South Ural State University (Chelyabinsk). E-mail: loginovskiyo@mail.ru


This article reviews the problem of effective choice of management alternative to achieve the goals set by the management of an in-dustrial organization. Such problems may be associated with decision making and different hierarchical levels of the organization. In this case it is usually the strategic development which is considered. Therefore, possible consequences of behavior alternatives faced by the management during the decision making process should be analyzed and considered in order to achieve agile management which is crucial in times of global instability. To support decision making process and long-term planning activities this work develops a sophisticated mathematical model which allow choosing of management alternatives for industrial organization development specifically for choice of main products. The described model is based mainly on the forecasting of costs of resources needed for the certain products. The forecasting is carried out with consideration of different economic scenarios. This allows further sensitivity analysis of the chosen model in context of various fluctuations. Therefore, the general view of the problem is formulated as a choice of management alternatives to achieve the maximum profits considering different scenarios and time scales. The second part of this paper presents an example of implementation of the developed mathematical model of a product of JSC «Kuznetsk Ferroalloys», which shows successful optimization of management decision process. Firstly model formulates forecasts for resource costs and after that the sensitivity analysis is performed. This objective is met through fixed scenarios for certain resources and variable for others. Finally the imitation model if utilized determinate the optimal decisions. The main advantages of the model are the adaptive forecasting methods and ability to fit with the complexity and periodicity of the management problem. This is important for tasks with multiple alternatives because it increases the speed of the decision process with simplified forecasting models and keep knowledge and expertise gained during the solution of the problem.
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