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Time series analysis in problems of control archive of design and technological documentation


I.A. Timina – Assistant, Department «Information Systems», Ulyanovsk State Technical University. E-mail: Yu.A Radionova – Ph. D. (Eng.), Leading Part-programming engineer, FRPC OJSC «RPA «Mars» (Ulyanovsk). E-mail: N.G. Yarushkina – Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Head of Department «Information Systems», Ulyanovsk State Tech-nical University. E-mail: E.N. Egov – Assistant, Department «Information Systems», Ulyanovsk State Technical University. E-mail:

The activities of any research enterprise lies in the design, development and support of scientific and technical products. For making var-ious kinds of solutions the company is based on modern tools and methods of information processing within the corporate information system of the enterprise (CISE). One of the Central elements in the construction of effective CISE is to automate the activities of the de-sign team, whose main goal is through the analysis of incoming technical documentation of the enterprise to make quick and correct con-clusions on the execution and implementation of ongoing projects. In this work the problem of data mining by algorithmic prediction through the use of fuzzy tendencies (FT) and measures of entropy of fuzzy time series (TS), is formed on the basis of technical documentation for products in the archive project organization. Among the obtained ranks FT using the degree of similarity pairs are formed similar TS FT. Based on the data organization in pairs is al-located a predicate that has a direct impact on the prognosis dependent BP. Impact VR-predicate is expressed by regulating predict de-pendent BP. The application of the results of measures of entropy fuzzy TS and FT allows you to select a hypothesis for forecasting. Thus, it can be used to determine whether the hypothesis of conservation trends when forecasting or should we expect the trend change.


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