A. V. Tkachenko, K. A. Tkachenko
In the theory of systems it is marked, that occurrence of jumps in development of the system is the most difficult for researching and forecasting a system in its future. A jump is understood as a fast transition of a system to a new qualitative condition which is caused by slowly collected quantitative changes of its characteristics. A moment of the jump is a transition of the system from one steady condition to another one. Theoretical preconditions of forecasting of spasmodic changes in a qualitative condition of organizational and technical systems are considered. It is shown that forecasting of a moment and a size of the jump can be carried out by modeling a process of development of the investigated system. The sequence of these stages is presented. The final step of modeling is forecasting of a probable character of the process in its further devel-opment. Thus possible variants of the development of the process and ways of its management are important to choose the most rational way.